Investment update

Weekly insight into the marketplace.

September 29 to October 3, 2025

The TSX surpassed 30,000 points

Canada’s TSX closed with a new record high on Monday, benefitting from tech-sector enthusiasm and a rally on gold prices. Canadian Minister of Jobs and Families Patty Hajdu also announced $400 million in low-interest loans for Algoma Steel on Monday. The company is Canada’s last independent steelmaker, and the loans are part of Ottawa’s Large Enterprise Tariff Loan program. The Ontario government contributed another $100 million to the Sault Ste. Marie-based company, which employs close to 2,500 people in the province. On Tuesday, the TSX remained at record levels and crossed the 30,000-point line for the first time (after briefly passing the level in intraday trading the week prior). Tuesday also marked the end of a strong month and quarter for Canada’s benchmark index. The TSX gained almost 5% in September, a month that’s historically slow for markets, and surged 11.7% higher in Q3. The price of gold was a leading factor, surpassing US$3,800 (a new record) on Monday. The precious metal was up over 11% for the month and is approximately 45% higher than it was a year ago. The TSX added to its weekly gains on Wednesday, led by the materials sector with another 0.9% gain in gold prices, as appeal for the safe-haven asset grew amidst the U.S. government shutdown. The TSX moved 0.2% gain higher again on Thursday and added 1% on Friday for a sixth straight day of gains and 2.4% weekly increase.

The major U.S. indexes rallied higher

U.S. markets opened on Monday with investors sizing up, and largely shrugging off, the looming U.S. government shutdown. The probability of delayed or paused economic data reports, which investors and analysts rely on for insight, wasn’t enough to curb expectations for further interest-rate cuts later this year. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq led gains as the positive rate-cut outlook kept tech and AI-related stocks in favour. In addition to daily gains again on Tuesday, the Dow ended September with a 1.87% increase and a 5.22% quarterly increase. The S&P 500 rose 3.53% for the month and gained 7.79% in Q3. The Nasdaq added 5.61% in September and climbed 11.24% for the quarter (its largest third-quarter gain since 2010). The major U.S. indexes closed higher again on Wednesday as investors looked past the initial implications of the government shutdown and focused on healthcare; the sector got a major boost following news that Pfizer and U.S. President Donald Trump had agreed on a deal that will lower the price of prescription drugs in the Medicaid program in exchange for some tariff relief. The Wall Street benchmarks stayed positive again on Thursday following a subdued day of trading, and the Dow and the S&P 500 secured new record highs on Friday. All three benchmarks closed the week with gains of 1% or more. New AI deals drove market gains on Friday with Hitachi partnering with Open AI and Fujitsu teaming with Nvidia.

The U.S. government shut down

On October 1, the U.S. federal government shut down after Congress failed to reach an agreement on a funding deal. Equities fell, the U.S. dollar softened and gold prices surged as markets opened, but the major North American stock indexes continued to climb higher through the week. With the shutdown, many non-essential services are paused and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed at a price tag of US$400 million a day. Investors and analysts can also expect data delays on key economic indicators. This could add some uncertainty in the lead-up to the next interest-rate decision if the congressional stalemate continues, but so far investors have remained optimistic. This is the fifteenth shutdown since 1981, with the longest one lasting 35 days in late 2018 into early 2019. Historically, shutdowns haven’t had major long-term implications for financial markets. An estimate by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office indicated the 2018 shutdown caused a 0.02% decrease on the 2019 U.S. gross domestic product. Using a wider lens, in the 12 months after a shutdown ends, the S&P 500 has been higher about 86% of the time, with average returns in the double digits.