Investment update
Weekly insight into the marketplace.
September 22 to 26, 2025
Equity markets took a breather
The technology sector helped the major U.S. stock indexes stay in record territory on Monday after Nvidia shares surged on news that the chipmaker plans to invest US$100 billion in OpenAI. The tech-focused Nasdaq led with a 0.70% gain. Canada's resource-heavy TSX was also able to extend its record run fuelled by higher gold prices. On Tuesday, the winning streak on Wall Street was halted by a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) Chair Jerome Powell that left investors disappointed as they’d hoped for signs of further rate cuts. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 retreated 0.95% and 0.55%, respectively, as enthusiasm for AI stocks waned. Despite breaking the 30,000–level briefly during the session, the TSX closed with a 0.48% loss after a 4.46% drop in shares of Shopify. The sell-off continued Wednesday and all the major North American stock indexes closed modestly lower. The Dow led losses for the U.S. benchmarks, shedding 0.37%, while the TSX slid 0.20%. Thursday was another down day across the board. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each declined 0.50% as investors looked to lock in gains with the quarter-end approaching. The TSX dipped 0.08%. Sentiment improved on Friday after the release of U.S. inflation data that was in line with expectations. The Dow led the U.S. equity indexes with a 0.65% gain, while the TSX inched up 0.10%.
The Fed Chair dampened sentiment
In closely watched remarks to the Greater Providence Rhode Island Chamber of Commerce on Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell struck a cautious tone and said that stock prices are "fairly highly valued." He explained that there are risks to both of the Fed’s goals – maximum employment and stable prices – and with the unemployment rate rising, policymakers agreed to cut rates earlier this month. But Powell steered clear from signalling further cuts, which gave investors reason to hit pause on the multi-session win streaks when he said, “If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later to fully restore 2% inflation. If we maintain restrictive policy too long, the labour market could soften unnecessarily."
Economic data was in focus
Economic reports released Friday delivered good news on both sides of the border. According to Statistics Canada, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in July for the first time in four months, despite the onset of U.S. tariffs. Data showed economic activity increased 0.2% in July, compared with June, and slightly higher than economist forecasts of 0.1%. In the U.S., the personal consumption expenditures index – the Fed’s preferred inflation guage – showed the annual inflation rate in August was at 2.9% after rising 0.2% on a monthly basis. This was in line with economist expectations and interpreted by investors as unlikely to influence the Fed away from making further rate cuts.
The stock and bond market*
| Index | Close | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 29,761.28 | -0.02% | 20.35% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. | 46,247.29 | -0.15% | 8.70% |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,643.70 | -0.31% | 12.96% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,484.07 | -0.65% | 16.43% |
| 10-yr Canadian Bond Yield | 3.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 10-yr U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.20% | 0.06% | -0.38% |
| WTI Crude Oil (US$/barrel) | 65.72 | 4.85% | -8.37% |
| Canadian Dollar | US$0.72 | -1.10% | 3.18% |
Prime Rate 4.70 % |
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*Weekly performance ending September 26, 2025. Sources: Morningstar Direct, Bank of Canada, U.S. Department of the Treasury and CME Group
Take advantage of market fluctuations Dollar-cost averaging is a simple long-term strategy that can help you take advantage of dips in the market, smoothing out the peaks and valleys. This strategy can reduce the temptation to try to time the market and makes it easier to stay on your chosen financial path. All you need to do is contribute regularly. A Co-operators financial representative can help you plan an investment schedule that works for your timeline, budget and lifestyle. Find out more.
U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment data (October 3): Data showing that the U.S. labour market has been weakening was a key factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates earlier this month. Investors will be paying close attention when September’s figures are released on Friday as they weigh the likelihood of further cuts in the weeks ahead.
Circle these dates
October 13: Canadian markets closed for Thanksgiving Day
October 28 to 29: U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate decision
October 29: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision
The commentary in this report is based on current market conditions and market media sources available to the public and may change without prior warning at any time. The forecasts provided herein are not guarantees of future performance and include risks, uncertainty and assumptions. While Co-operators Life Insurance Company (“Co-operators”) believes these assumptions are reasonable, there is no guarantee they will be confirmed. This report is not a guarantee of future investment performance, nor should undue reliance be placed on this report. This report is provided as a general source of information for a specific point in time and should not be considered solicitation to buy or sell any investment. Nothing contained in this report constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. The content in this report should not be relied upon in making an investment or other decision, and individuals should obtain relevant and specific professional advice and read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents carefully before any investment decision is made. Co-operators is not responsible for any loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained in this report. Co-operators makes no representations or warranties as to the information contained herein and does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, completeness or usefulness. Co-operators is committed to protecting the privacy, confidentiality, accuracy and security of the personal information it collects, uses, retains and discloses in the course of conducting business. Please visit cooperators.ca/privacy for more information. Co-operators® is a registered trademark of Co-operators Group Limited and is used with permission. Investing in your future. Together.TM is a trademark of Co-operators Group Limited. If you are a client who has received this, and you have questions or want to discuss your investments, please contact your Financial Advisor.
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