Investment update
Weekly insight into the marketplace.
September 2 to 5, 2025
The TSX scored another weekly win
In a holiday-shortened week, Canada’s TSX didn’t take a break. The index continued its recording-setting run with closing highs through all four daily sessions. The materials sector, led by surging gold and copper prices, gained 1.8% on Tuesday and helped offset a Canadian manufacturing report that showed a contraction in August (the seventh straight monthly decline). The TSX added another 0.5% on Wednesday, led by the technology and consumer staples sectors, which rose 1.4% and 2%, respectively. Thursday and Friday saw the TSX hit its seventh and eighth consecutive record sessions, led by technology, real estate and mining shares. In the U.S., investors also contended with a downbeat manufacturing report on Tuesday that showed U.S. production fell for a sixth straight month. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the Dow declined 0.5% and Nasdaq shed 0.8%, with falling tech stocks adding to the negative market sentiment. Wall Street ended with mixed results on Wednesday, as negative employment data (from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover report – JOLTS) clashed with news that Alphabet Inc. won’t be forced to sell its Chrome browser. The win for Big Tech (Alphabet shares climbed 9.1%) helped the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq close 0.51% and 1.03% higher, respectively. The broad-based Dow fell 0.05%. All three of the major indexes posted solid gains on Thursday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting fresh record highs, but wobbled on Friday, falling back from the previous session’s gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended with weekly advances of 0.33% and 1.14%, respectively. The Dow finished 0.32% lower.
Canada’s trade deficit moderated in July
The Canadian trade deficit improved in July, easing to $4.94 billion from $5.98 billion in June (and April’s record $7.6 billion), but fell short of analysts’ $4.75 billion forecast. July marked the country’s sixth consecutive monthly trade deficit, dating back to February when U.S. President Trump implemented tariffs on Canada. Despite the decline, the trade gap has narrowed over the last three months. July exports increased 0.9% to $61.86 billion, driven by outgoing crude oil shipments and passenger vehicles to the U.S., while imports declined 0.7% to $66.80 billion. Exports to the U.S. increased for a third month, but were still down over 10% on a year-over-year basis. Aluminum shipments fell by the largest margin and are down 30%. Imports from the U.S. fell 2.2%, helping Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. climb by 80% in July to $6.7 billion, the highest since March. Overall, July’s data suggests that U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on the Canadian trade balance, but the narrowing deficit, though modest, provides some optimism that the worst impacts are subsiding.
Canadian and U.S. employment data came into focus
Labour market data took centre stage through the week, beginning with the U.S. JOLTS report on Wednesday. The results showed fewer job openings in July than expected (7.18 million), down from 7.36 million in June, and below the 7.38 million expected. The ADP National Employment Report, released Thursday, showed private U.S. employment increased by 54,000 jobs in August. The weekly U.S. jobless claim report, also released on Thursday, was up by 8,000 to 237,000 unemployment benefit requests for the week ending August 30. The biggest news came Friday with Canadian employment data that showed the economy lost 66,000 jobs in August (versus a forecast of 10,000 new jobs) and the unemployment rate climbed to 7.1% (the highest non-pandemic level since 2016). The U.S. added 22,000 non-farm payroll jobs, but the August numbers were down considerably from the 79,000 jobs in July.
The stock and bond market*
| Index | Close | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 29,050.63 | 1.70% | 17.48% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. | 45,400.86 | -0.32% | 6.71% |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,481.50 | 0.33% | 10.20% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 21,700.39 | 1.14% | 12.37% |
| 10-yr Canadian Bond Yield | 3.27% | -0.11% | 0.04% |
| 10-yr U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.1% | -0.13% | -0.48% |
| WTI Crude Oil (US$/barrel) | 63.97 | -0.06% | -10.81% |
| Canadian Dollar | US$0.73 | -0.63% | 4.01% |
Prime Rate 4.95 % |
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*Weekly performance ending September 5, 2025. Sources: Morningstar Direct, Bank of Canada, U.S. Department of the Treasury and CME Group
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U.S. inflation data (September 11): Headline U.S. inflation held steady at 2.7% on a year-over-year basis from June to July. Core inflation increased 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June. On monthly basis, headline inflation was up 0.2% in July and core inflation rose by 0.3%. The August release will be the last consumer price index report ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (The Fed) next interest-rate decision.
Circle these dates
September 16: Canadian inflation report
September 17: Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate announcements
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