Investment update

Weekly insight into the marketplace.

October 13 to 17, 2025

Markets withstood volatility

Canada’s benchmark stock index opened the holiday-shortened week with a strong 1.7% gain on Tuesday, recouping much of the previous week’s -2.04% loss. Tuesday’s performance was led by the materials sector with both copper and gold prices rising and metal mining shares climbing on the day. Mining stocks led gains again on Wednesday as the TSX rose 0.9% and closed with a new daily record. The commodity-heavy index also benefitted from gold prices, which crossed US$4,200 an ounce for the first time. The positive momentum ended there, though, as the TSX started a two-day slide that saw the benchmark shed 0.6% on Thursday and another 1.2% on Friday.

The major U.S. stock indexes opened the week in rally mode on Monday after President Donald Trump wrote, "Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” on social media. The tone was a stark contrast to Trump’s post about China the previous Friday that sent stocks plunging. The Dow rose 1.3% and the S&P 500 added 1.6%. The tech-focused Nasdaq, which led gains with a 2.2% advance, also got a boost after Broadcom, the industry leader in custom AI accelerators, announced a partnership deal with OpenAI. Wall Street’s performance was mixed on Tuesday as investors sifted through an upwardly revised International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlook, along with comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that seemed to support more rate cuts, and another negative social post by President Trump related to U.S.-China trade. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed 0.8% and 0.2% lower, respectively, while the Dow ended 0.4% higher. Markets wobbled between gains and losses on Wednesday as U.S.-China trade details remained murky, but positive bank earnings lifted sentiment. The S&P 500 edged up 0.4%, the Nasdaq climbed 0.7% and the Dow fell 0.1%. Salt Lake City-based Zion Bancorporation reported a US$50-million loss connected to two commercial and industrial loans , which caused rising concerns about mid-sized U.S. banks and started a sell-off on Thursday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, the Dow dropped 0.7% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%. Sentiment shifted again on Friday after President Trump soothed trade concerns with China. All three benchmarks added 0.5% to conclude a volatile week.

The IMF upgraded its 2025 outlook

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its fall World Economic Outlook (WEO). The organization, which includes 191 member countries, now projects global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.2% for 2025. That’s down 0.2% from the fall 2024 WEO, but an improvement when compared to the 2.8% forecast in April and July’s revision to 3.0%. The report pointed to evolving tariff and trade deals for the October upgrade but repeated many of the same warnings the organization noted in April: “Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, as they were in previous WEO reports. Prolonged policy uncertainty could dampen consumption and investment. Further escalation of protectionist measures, including nontariff barriers, could suppress investment, disrupt supply chains, and stifle productivity growth.” The IMF downgraded its Canadian growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, with GDP now expected to come in at 1.4% and 1.6%. The IMF also projected that Canada could become the second-fastest-growing of the G7 economies next year.

U.S. bank earnings topped expectations

A few of the biggest names in U.S. banking and investments kicked off Q3 earnings season last week and all outpaced expectations. JPMorgan Chase reported a quarterly net income of US$14.4 billion, roughly US$1 billion above analyst forecasts and up 12% from a year earlier. Revenue from investment banking rose 17% year-over-year to US$2.6 billion. Goldman Sachs posted net income of US$4.1 billion, a 37% increase from last year and about US$500 million above expectations, driven by a 42% surge in investment banking revenue to US$2.6 billion. Wells Fargo earned US$5.6 billion, up 9% year-over-year and roughly US$500 million higher than projected. Investment banking revenue climbed 25% to US$840 million. Citigroup reported US$3.8 billion in net income, a 16% increase from the same quarter last year. Morgan Stanley posted US$4.6 billion in net income, up about 40% year-over-year, reflecting strength in equities trading and wealth management.