Insurance Investments Group Claims About us

Investment update

Weekly insight into the marketplace.

 

June 30 to July 4, 2025

The second half of 2025 started strong

Monday marked the end of a turbulent three-month period that saw the major North American stock indexes rally from steep losses in April to close the second quarter at, or near, record highs. Hope that the U.S. will soon reach trade agreements with key partners (including Canada) continued to drive positive performance. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose around half a percentage point and closed with quarterly gains of 10.57% and 17.75%, respectively. The Dow added 0.63% to end the quarter slightly below its last record close set in December. Canada’s TSX closed Monday at a record high, advancing 0.62% on its way to posting a quarterly return of 7.78%. With the TSX shutdown for Canada Day on Tuesday, the benchmark U.S. stock indexes turned in mixed performances as a cautious sentiment returned with the 90-day pause on U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs set to expire on July 9. The S&P 500 dipped 0.11% and the Nasdaq slid 0.82%, while the Dow rose 0.91%. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced back to close at record levels, while the Dow was essentially flat, despite some investor concern in early trading over weaker-than-expected U.S. private sector payrolls data for June. The resource-heavy TSX also edged up, tacking on another 0.05%, as stronger oil prices bolstered performance in its influential energy sector. The positive momentum carried over to Thursday. Holiday-shortened trading sessions on Wall Street ended with all the major stock indexes advancing close to 1% after data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by more than expected last month, which helped reduce some of the previous day’s unease over the health of the U.S. economy. The TSX climbed 0.61% higher led by technology stocks. On Friday, the TSX ticked up 0.01% to close above the 27,000-point level for the first time. U.S. markets were closed for Independence Day.

Canada-U.S. trade talks resumed

On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that he and President Trump had agreed to recommence trade and security negotiations aimed at reaching a deal between the nations by July 21. The previous Friday, President Trump had terminated the talks in protest of Canada’s digital services tax on American tech companies. By late Sunday, the Canadian government said it would rescind the tax. When announcing the decision, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who only a week before had insisted the tax was going ahead, said the move would allow negotiations between the countries “to make vital progress.” The next day, when asked by media if Canada would receive anything in exchange for dropping the tax, the Prime Minister explained: “It was something that we expected, in the broader sense that would be part of a final deal. We’re making progress towards a final deal. There’s more to be done, to be clear.” Reaction from the White House was more bellicose, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt telling reporters “It was a mistake for Canada to vow to implement that tax that would have hurt our tech companies here in the United States.”

Trump approved a massive tax and spending bill

Following months of fierce debate, culminating in close votes in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday and the House of Representatives on Thursday, Republicans passed what they have termed the "Big Beautiful Bill" outlining trillions of dollars in tax breaks and spending cuts. A major focus of the bill is the extension of US$4.5 trillion in tax breaks enacted during President Trump’s first term and set to expire, along with new measures including making tips and overtime pay tax deductible for workers and other deductions for many older Americans. The bill also sets aside close to US$350 billion for national security and deportation measures, including funding for a “Golden Dome” defensive system over the U.S. To help pay for the tax cuts, the package includes US$1.2 trillion in spending cuts to health care and food stamp programs and a significant rollback of green energy tax credits. President Trump signed the bill at a ceremony at the White House on Friday.

The stock and bond market*

Index Close Week YTD
S&P/TSX Composite 27,036.16 1.29% 9.33%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 44,828.53 2.30% 5.37%
S&P 500 Index 6,279.35 1.72% 6.76%
NASDAQ Composite 20,601.10 1.62% 6.68%
10-year Canadian Bond Yield 3.38% 0.06% 0.15%
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield 4.35% 0.06% -0.23%
WTI Crude Oil (US$/barrel) 67.00 2.26% -6.58%
Canadian Dollar US$0.7352 0.64% 5.75%
Bank of Canada Prime Rate 4.95%

*Weekly performance ending July 4, 2025. Source: Bloomberg.

Key take-away

We’re here to help. Partnering with us is a great way to keep your investment plan moving forward. Letting our experienced portfolio managers guide your investments through market uncertainty will help you stay on track toward your financial goals. If you have questions or decide it’s time to review your plan, our financial representatives are always ready to help.

What’s ahead

Canadian employment update (July 11): Canada added 8,800 new jobs in May, a small increase that wasn't enough to keep up with population growth. As a result, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 7% from 6.9% in April, marking the highest level in nearly nine years (excluding 2020 and 2021). Data for June will be available on Friday.

Circle these dates 

July 30: Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate announcements

August 4: TSX closed for Civic holiday

The commentary in this report is based on current market conditions and market media sources available to the public and may change without prior warning at any time. The forecasts provided herein are not guarantees of future performance and include risks, uncertainty and assumptions. While Co-operators Life Insurance Company (“Co-operators”) believes these assumptions are reasonable, there is no guarantee they will be confirmed. This report is not a guarantee of future investment performance, nor should undue reliance be placed on this report. This report is provided as a general source of information for a specific point in time and should not be considered solicitation to buy or sell any investment. Nothing contained in this report constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. The content in this report should not be relied upon in making an investment or other decision, and individuals should obtain relevant and specific professional advice and read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents carefully before any investment decision is made. Co-operators is not responsible for any loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained in this report. Co-operators makes no representations or warranties as to the information contained herein and does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, completeness or usefulness. Co-operators is committed to protecting the privacy, confidentiality, accuracy and security of the personal information it collects, uses, retains and discloses in the course of conducting business. Please visit cooperators.ca/privacy for more information. Co-operators® is a registered trademark of Co-operators Group Limited and is used with permission. Investing in your future. Together.TM is a trademark of Co-operators Group Limited. If you are a client who has received this, and you have questions or want to discuss your investments, please contact your Financial Advisor.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 ("Indices") are products of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, its affiliates and/or their licensors and has been licensed for use by Co-operators Financial Services Limited. Copyright © 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, its affiliates and/or their licensors. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part are prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. For more information on any of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC’s indices, please visit www.spdji.com. S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and neither S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, their affiliates nor their third party licensors shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.

The S&P/TSX Composite is a product of TSX Inc., its affiliates and/or their licensors and has been licensed for use by Co-operators Financial Services Limited. Copyright © 2025 TSX Inc. All rights reserved. Neither TSX Inc., their affiliates, nor their third-party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy of market representation of any index, or the context from which they are drawn, and shall not be liable for any errors, omissions or interruptions of any index or the data included therein.