Investment update

Weekly insight into the marketplace.

July 7 to July 11, 2025

Global trade developments drove uneven performance

On Monday, following renewed tariff threats by U.S. President Donald Trump against several trading partners, the S&P 500 and Dow lost 0.79% and 0.94%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 0.92% lower after shares of Tesla tumbled over news that its CEO, Elon Musk, was forming a new American political party. Musk’s new party will oppose the spending policies of his one-time “First Buddy” President Trump. Canada’s TSX fared better, only dipping 0.06%. The cautious sentiment carried over into Tuesday, with the S&P 500 losing 0.07%, and the Dow slipping 0.37%. The Nasdaq inched up slightly by 0.03%. The resource-heavy TSX shed more than 100 points and closed 0.43% lower, led by losses from the base-metals sector after President Trump told reporters that he would impose a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports. Performance improved Wednesday, with the Nasdaq rising 0.94% to reach a record level, fuelled by a rally in tech stocks that helped AI chipmaker Nvidia become the first public company to surpass US$4 trillion in market capitalization. The S&P 500 and Dow each gained around half a percent, while the TSX gained back 0.26%. On Thursday, the S&P 500 crossed back into record territory with a 0.27% gain, while the Dow advanced 0.43% and the Nasdaq edged up 0.09%. The TSX rose 0.41% led by industrial stocks. The week ended on a down note after President Trump unexpectedly raised his tariff threats against Canada. The major North American indexes closed with losses across the board on both a weekly and daily basis.

U.S. tariff threats escalated, and deadlines shifted

A new twist in U.S. trade policy came Monday when the Trump administration informed Japan and South Korea – two of its key trading partners – of the President’s plans to impose 25% tariffs on the goods they send to America, unless trade deals were reached by August 1. Similar threats to several other countries that President Trump had targeted as part of April’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements were told of even steeper levies. While investors were relieved that the Americans extended their July 9 deadline to allow more time for negotiations, it did little to quell concerns over how potential tariffs will impact corporate earnings, inflation and economic growth around the world. So far, the U.S. has only reached agreements with the United Kingdom and Vietnam. Canada was not included in the global tariffs announced by President Trump in April, but had been the target of 25% tariffs on energy and potash exports not compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement, as well as additional sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles. In turn, Canada has responded with a suite of counter levies against tens of billions of dollars worth of U.S. goods. Further uncertainty was sown late Thursday when President Trump issued a letter threatening to up the 25% tariff on Canadian imports to 35% on August 1. In a response posted to the X social media platform, Prime Minister Mark Carney said: “Throughout the current trade negotiations with the United States, the Canadian government has steadfastly defended our workers and businesses. We will continue to do so as we work towards the revised deadline of August 1.” When President Trump was asked by reporters on Friday what advice he had for countries working toward deals with the U.S. ahead of August 1, he had this to offer: “just keep working hard” and “it’s all going to work out.”

Canada’s unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in June

Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed the unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in June as the economy added approximately 83,000 jobs. Economists were expecting unemployment to rise. Most of the jobs added were part-time, and 47,000 were in the private sector. This is the first significant job gain recorded since January and marks the end of three-straight months rising unemployment.