Investment update

Weekly insight into the marketplace.

November 24 to 28, 2025

Markets surged higher

The week opened on a high note Monday, with all four North American benchmark stock indexes posting substantial gains. Canada’s TSX climbed 1.47%, led by the materials sector which advanced 5.1% on the back rising gold prices. On Wall Street, optimism for an interest-rate cut in December, and the tech stocks that thrive in a low interest-rate environment, powered the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq to gains of 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. The Dow, which includes fewer tech names, added 0.5%. Alphabet was one of the big winners on Monday with its shares rising more than 5% and bringing the company close to the rare US$4 trillion market valuation. Momentum continued Tuesday as data starved investors reacted to long-delayed reports on inflation and consumer spending. The Nasdaq closed 0. 7% higher, the S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the Dow rose 1.4%. The TSX rose 1% on Tuesday and added another 0.9% on Wednesday for consecutive record highs. Wall Street also saw a fourth straight day of gains as renewed tech enthusiasm and growing confidence for a December rate cut boosted sentiment heading into the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday. The Dow rose 0.67%, the S&P 500 gained 0.69%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.82%. Canada’s benchmark notched another moderate 0.1% win on Thursday despite low trading volumes while U.S. markets were closed. On Friday, the TSX added another 0.6% and closed the month with a 3.7% gain. The Wall Street benchmarks all closed higher in holiday-shortened trading on Friday, posted strong weekly gains, but closed the month with mixed results.

U.S economic data supported a rate cut

With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) final interest-rate decision of 2025 approaching at its December 9 to 10 meeting, a backlog of economic data released on Tuesday (delayed by the 43-day government shutdown) was under increased scrutiny. The U.S. Commerce Department released retail sales figures for September that showed slower growth of 0.2% when compared to the 0.6% increases in July and August, and fell short of economist forecasts of 0.4%. Core retail sales, which exclude cars, gasoline, building materials and food services, declined 0.1%. Wholesale inflation data - measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI) - rose 0.3% in September, matching analyst projections. Originally scheduled for release on October 16, the report highlighted goods prices as the primary driver of the wholesale inflation increase, rising 0.9% (the biggest jump since February 2024), while services prices remained flat. Core PPI rose just 0.1% and was below the forecast of 0.2%. In a separate and final report for Tuesday, U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in November according to the Conference Board's consumer confidence index which dropped to 88.7 in November from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October. The decline marked the lowest level since April, as consumers remained worried about inflation and the job market. Taken together, last week’s data fuelled speculation that the Fed will proceed with a rate cut in December, with odds over 80% (at the time of writing).

The Canadian economy was in focus

Prime Minister Mark Carney made headlines last week with two major economic announcements: On Tuesday, Ottawa outlined new measures to support Canada’s steel industry which has been handcuffed by Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs. To boost domestic demand, Ottawa is tightening its tariff-rate quotas on steel imports to help stem the flow of steel and steel derivative products into Canada as producers look to offload inventory. The quota for countries that don’t have a free-trade agreement with Canada will be lowered to 20% of 2024 levels. For countries that do have a free-trade agreement with Canada, the quota will be set at 75% of 2024 levels. Tariff-rate quotas do not apply to the U.S. or Mexico, but U.S. steel is Investments. Insurance. Advice still subject to a separate 25% tariff. In the second big announcement, on Thursday, Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed a new energy deal that both sides think will establish Canada as a global energy powerhouse. British Columbia and Indigenous leaders are expected to be consulted on the deal which includes a new bitumen pipeline that will carry a million barrels of oil a day from Alberta to the B.C. coast where exports will be shipped to Asian markets. The economic news continued Friday with Statistics Canada releasing its third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report that showed growth of 2.6%. It was a much faster rate of growth than the 0.5% analysts expected, and 6.7% increase in crude oil and bitumen exports, and a 2.9% increase in government capital investments.