| Index | Close | Week | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 35,274.84 | 0.84% | 11.24% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,900.07 | 1.97% | 10.06% |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,483.24 | 1.76% | 9.32% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,832.67 | 2.12% | 11.15% |
| 10-year Canadian Bond Yield | 3.45% | 0.06% | 0.03% |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.49% | 0.11% | 0.31% |
| Canadian Dollar | US$0.7042 | -0.10% | -3.48% |
Prime Rate 4.45% |
|||
Weekly performance ended July 3, 2026.
Sources: Morningstar Direct, Bank of Canada and U.S. Department of the Treasury
Stock markets balanced economic data and tech-sector volatility
On Monday, Canada’s TSX declined 0.4%, as broad-based sector weakness outweighed gains in financial stocks. U.S. equities opened the week on a stronger note. The Dow rose 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.2% and 2.1%, respectively. Renewed enthusiasm for AI-related companies and expectations for continued growth in technology spending lifted investor sentiment.
The TSX recovered ground on Tuesday, edging up 0.1% following stronger-than-expected Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) data. Financial and energy stocks contributed to the advance. U.S. markets also moved higher, with the Dow adding 0.3%, the S&P 500 climbing 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1.5%. Technology shares helped drive gains, while lower oil prices and signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran provided additional support.
Canadian markets were closed Wednesday for the Canada Day holiday. South of the border, trading was subdued. The Dow slipped 0.03%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq lost 0.7%. Semiconductor stocks came under pressure as investors took profits after a strong first half of the year, though the major U.S. stock indexes remained near record highs.
When Canadian markets reopened on Thursday, the TSX advanced 0.3%, as technology and basic materials stocks rose. In the U.S., stocks were mixed following the release of weaker-than-expected employment data. The Dow rose 1.1% to another record high, the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Continued weakness in semiconductor shares weighed on the technology-heavy index, while hopes that slower job growth could reduce pressure on interest rates helped support the broader market.
On Friday, the TSX gained 0.9%, led by advances in basic materials and energy stocks. Gold prices moved higher, supporting mining shares, while a modest increase in oil prices contributed to gains in the energy sector. U.S. markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.
CUSMA review moved into next phase of negotiations
As widely expected on Wednesday, the U.S. declined to join Canada and Mexico in extending the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) under the scheduled review process.
While the decision triggered annual reviews moving forward, the agreement remains fully in force and does not face automatic termination. Trade officials from all three countries indicated discussions would continue in the months ahead. Key issues are expected to include U.S. concerns related to automotive manufacturing and market access for dairy products, while Canada has signalled that U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles and lumber will remain a priority in future discussions.
The continuation of the existing agreement should help preserve a degree of certainty for businesses operating across North American supply chains. CUSMA governs hundreds of billions of dollars in annual cross-border trade, and investors will continue to monitor negotiations closely. Any changes to trade rules or tariffs could have implications for economic growth, business investment and corporate earnings across North America.
Canada’s economy rebounded while U.S. job creation slowed
On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that real GDP rose 0.5% in April, exceeding expectations and marking the strongest monthly expansion since July 2025. Growth was broad-based, with gains across manufacturing, construction, transportation and energy production. Preliminary estimates also point to continued growth in May, suggesting the Canadian economy regained momentum at the beginning of Q2 after a flat start to the year.
South of the border, June employment data (released Thursday) showed the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs. That figure fell below expectations and was slower than the pace recorded in May. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.2%, although labour force participation also declined. Meanwhile, separate data released earlier in the week showed U.S. job openings remained elevated, indicating ongoing demand for workers despite signs of a moderating labour market.
Taken together, the latest data suggest economic activity remains resilient in both countries. But investors continue to watch for signs that growth and labour market conditions are gradually cooling after several years of expansion.
Focus on the long term
If your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon haven’t changed, your current investing plan is likely on the right track. It’s important to look past short-term ups and downs and focus on your long-term prospects. Staying invested – and continuing to invest – throughout market fluctuations is the best way to capitalize on probable market recoveries. If you have questions, a Co-operators financial representative is always ready to help.
Canadian employment data (July 10)
Investors will be watching Canada’s June employment report on Friday, one of the final major economic releases before the Bank of Canada’s next interest-rate decision. The data could influence expectations for the path of interest rates in the months ahead.
More important dates
- July 15: Bank of Canada interest-rate decision
- July 28 to 29: U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate decision
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The commentary in this report is based on current market conditions and market media sources available to the public and may change without prior warning at any time. The forecasts provided herein are not guarantees of future performance and include risks, uncertainty and assumptions. While Co-operators Financial Investment Services Inc. and Co-operators Life Insurance Company (“Co-operators”) believe these assumptions are reasonable, there is no guarantee they will be confirmed. This report is not a guarantee of future investment performance, nor should undue reliance be placed on this report. This report is provided as a general source of information for a specific point in time and should not be considered solicitation to buy or sell any investment. Nothing contained in this report constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice. The content in this report should not be relied upon in making an investment or other decision, and individuals should obtain relevant and specific professional advice and read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents carefully before any investment decision is made. Co-operators is not responsible for any loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained in this report. Co-operators makes no representations or warranties as to the information contained herein and does not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, completeness or usefulness.
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