Market recap: Week ended March 6, 2026

Markets stumbled over geopolitical concerns

On Monday – the first day of trading following U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran over the weekend – the major North American stock indexes rebounded from an initial sharp sell-off. At their intra-day lows, the Nasdaq was down nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 and the Dow had fallen about 2.5%. By the day’s end, the Dow narrowed its loss margin, but still ended with a 0.18% loss, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq gained 0.01% and 0.32%, respectively.

Canada’s TSX outperformed the U.S. indexes, gaining 0.6% and closing at a record high. The heavily weighted energy sector led performance (up 1.8%), as crude oil prices surged amid supply disruption fears. The TSX also got a boost from gold, which traded as high as US$5,400 an ounce on Monday, though it pared gains to close at US$5,300.

Parity returned on Tuesday with the TSX posting an outsized 2.2% loss (after dropping 4% intra-day), as gold prices tumbled 4.5%. The major U.S. benchmarks fared better, but also lost ground. Investors grappled with the implications of an extended conflict in the Middle East, with particular concern about inflation if oil prices were to remain elevated. The ⁠Dow lost 0.83%, the S&P 500 fell ⁠0.94% and the Nasdaq declined 1.02%.

Markets stabilized on Wednesday and Wall Street’s volatility index (known as the VIX) dipped 10%. This followed two positive U.S. economic reports, and a New York Times article claiming there were secretive talks between members of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and the CIA about ending the current conflict. The Dow rose 0.49%, the S&P 500 added 0.78% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.29%. The TSX also gained 0.5%, led by the tech sector and shares of domestic tech darling Shopify, which rose 6%.

Crude oil prices exceeded US$80 per barrel on Thursday and markets sunk, as the Middle East conflict entered its sixth day. Reports that Iranian counterattacks had expanded beyond Israel and U.S. bases to include regional targets, including Azerbaijan and Oman, weighed on global sentiment. The Nasdaq fell 0.26%, the S&P 500 declined 0.56% and the Dow lost 1.61%. The TSX also ended 1% lower, as the price of gold shed another 1.1%.

The week ended with markets in a fragile state as oil prices hit US$90 a barrel for first time since 2023. A downbeat U.S. jobs report added complexity to the current economic outlook. The Dow declined 0.95% on Friday (and recorded its sharpest weekly loss since April 2025), the S&P 500 had a daily loss of 1.33% and the Nasdaq shed 1.59%. The TSX was down 1.6% on the day and ended a four-week streak of gains.

The Fed released its Beige Book report

Published eight times a year, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) Beige Book summarizes the current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve districts. “Overall, economic expectations were optimistic, with most districts expecting slight-to-moderate growth in the coming months,” the report said. Other highlights included several encouraging signs across the economy. Economic activity increased at a slight-to-moderate pace in seven of the twelve districts. Consumer spending increased slightly, even though economic uncertainty, increased price sensitivity and a spending pullback from lower-income consumers hurt sales. And the labour market enjoyed stable employment levels, and modest wage increases, as companies ramped up their competition for talent. More concerning, the report noted moderate price increases in recent weeks, as some companies continued to pass tariff-related costs to their customers.

U.S. jobs data revealed an uneven labour market

According to the latest ADP Employment Change data, private U.S. employers added a surprising 63,000 new jobs in February. Released on Wednesday, the February numbers blew past the 11,000 new positions reported in January (downwardly revised from 22,000) and easily surpassed the 50,000 jobs economists expected. The increases were led by jobs in construction, education and health-care, while manufacturing and business services roles declined.

The Labor Department’s Nonfarm payroll data released on Friday — which often diverges from ADP data due to its wider employer coverage — was also a surprise, with the economy losing an unexpected 92,000 jobs in February. Economists were forecasting an addition of 59,000 jobs after the (downwardly revised) 126,000 new jobs in January. A strike by 31,000 healthcare workers was a contributing factor in the February data. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.