| Index | Close | Week | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 33,817.51 | 2.25% | 6.64% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 49,625.97 | 0.25% | 3.25% |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,909.51 | 1.07% | 0.93% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,886.07 | 1.51% | -1.53% |
| 10-year Canadian Bond Yield | 3.22% | -0.03% | -0.20% |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.08% | 0.04% | -0.10% |
| WTI Crude Oil (U.S.$ per barrel) | 66.48 | 5.71% | 15.78% |
| Canadian Dollar | US$0.73 | -0.54% | 0.12% |
Prime Rate 4.45% |
|||
Weekly performance ended February 20, 2026.
Sources: Morningstar Direct, Bank of Canada, U.S. Department of the Treasury and CME Group
Surging commodities powered the TSX to record highs
In a holiday shortened week, the major North American stock indexes were closed Monday. When market activity resumed on Tuesday, the TSX fell 0.5%. The materials sector, which shed 2.5%, weighed down the index, as gold prices slipped more than 2%. Energy shares also fell, with the sector losing 0.7% due to falling oil prices. Both commodities declined after Iranian and U.S. officials, speaking in Geneva, announced progress toward resolving their nuclear program dispute. A 2.7% bounce back in gold prices on Wednesday, and a spike in military defence-related stocks (Bombardier, Magellan and MDA Space), helped propel the Canadian benchmark to a record high on Wednesday, posting a 1.5% gain. Resurgent gold and oil prices helped the Canadian benchmark notch another record Thursday, gaining 0.6%. Investors looked past disappointing domestic retails sales data on Friday, and the TSX stayed at record levels with a 0.7% gain. Gold and copper prices continued to rise and the tech sector advanced 1.4%
The major U.S. stock indexes climbed back from a midday slide on Tuesday to close with modest gains. The S&P 500’s tech sector dropped 1.5% at its lowest point, but the index closed with a 0.5% gain, as increases for Nvidia and Apple helped offset losses for Microsoft and Oracle. The Dow recovered from a 0.7% decline to close 0.1% higher. The Nasdaq also added 0.1%. Nvidia helped lift Wall Street again on Wednesday after the tech giant signed a multi-year deal to provide Meta Platforms with AI microchips. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 added 0.6% and the Nasdaq increased 0.8%. Momentum stalled on Thursday, as tension between the U.S. and Iran reignited, raising geopolitical market worries. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%, while the Dow dropped 0.5%. Despite a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Friday that went against President Trump’s use of tariffs last year, Wall Street ended the day (and the week) higher. Led by tech heavyweights Alphabet, Amazon and Apple, the Dow gained 0.5% on Friday, the S&P 500 was 0.7% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.9%.
Canada’s defence strategy and inflation data took the spotlight
The Canadian government formally announced its new defence strategy on Tuesday, which aims to strengthen the economy and bolster the job market. The government’s “Build-Partner-Buy” strategy prioritizes contracts with Canadian defence manufacturers, followed by partnerships with allied nations, to meet the country’s defence needs. Purchasing equipment from abroad will be a final resort. The overarching goal is to raise the number federal defence contracts with Canadian firms to 70% in the next 10 years (from the current 43%). “Defending Canada means more than the size of our military,” said Prime Minister Mark Carney. “It also means the strength of our industries, the resilience of our economy and our capacity to act independently when it matters most. Our national security and our economic security go hand in hand.”
On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices slowed in January, with the annual inflation rate edging down to 2.3%. Economists had expected inflation to hold steady at 2.4%, the same pace as consumer prices in December. The price for gasoline had the biggest impact on January’s deceleration, falling 16.7% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 2.4% in January, following a 2.5% increase in December. Last year’s temporary GST/HST tax holiday continued to distort CPI. Restaurant food prices, for example, were 12.3% higher this January than in January 2025 when the tax discount was in place.
The U.S. rate-cut debate intensified
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) monetary policy remained in focus last week, with new details adding to the rate-cut speculation that started with January’s cooler-than-expected consumer inflation report (released February 13). The Fed’s January 27 to 28 meeting minutes (released Wednesday), showed that policy-makers were nearly unanimous in their decision to hold rates steady last month, but disagree on the path forward. The report says “several” committee members believe additional cuts will be appropriate if inflation continues to slow, while “some” officials support prolonging the current rate pause.
The Fed minutes put a brighter spotlight on Friday’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. According to the Commerce Department’s report, underlying inflation in the U.S. increased more than expected in December. Core PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% in November and higher than the 0.3% forecast. A separate Commerce Department report released on Friday showed a dramatic drop in U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter. After growing at a strong 4.4% pace in Q3, GDP increased at a much slower1.4% annualized rate in Q4. Prior to the report, President Trump posted on social media that last year’s government shutdown was to blame: "Shutdown cost the U.S.A. at least two points in GDP. That’s why they are doing it, in mini form, again. No Shutdowns! Also, LOWER INTEREST RATES.”
Review your time horizon and your risk tolerance.
No one can predict when the markets will rise or fall, or by how much. This makes timing the market a risky approach. That’s why your investment strategy, from the outset, should be based on your goals, your risk tolerance and your time horizon – not the markets. If you have questions, a Co-operators financial representative is always ready to help.
Canadian GDP
On Friday (February 27) Statistics Canada will release its Q4 Canadian Gross Domestic Product report. In Q3, Canada’s GDP exceeded expectations, expanding 2.6% on an annualized basis. Growth was supported by an improved trade balance and increased government capital spending.
More important dates
- March 2: Deadline for contributing to an RRSP for the 2025 tax year
- March 18: Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate announcements
- April 30: 2025 personal income tax filing deadline
Mutual funds are offered through Co-operators Financial Investment Services Inc. to Canadian residents except those in Quebec and the territories. Segregated funds and annuities are administered by Co-operators Life Insurance Company. Not all products are available in all provinces.
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