| Index | Close | Week | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 32,612.93 | 2.29% | 2.84% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 49,504.07 | 2.32% | 3.00% |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,966.28 | 1.57% | 1.76% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 2,3671.35 | 1.88% | 1.85% |
| 10-year Canadian Bond Yield | 3.38% | -0.09% | -0.04% |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.18% | -0.01% | 0.00% |
| WTI Crude Oil (U.S.$ per barrel) | 59.12 | 3.14% | 2.96% |
| Canadian Dollar | US$0.72 | -1.15% | -1.37% |
Prime Rate 4.45 % |
|||
Weekly performance ending January 9, 2026.
Sources: Morningstar Direct, Bank of Canada, U.S. Department of the Treasury and CME Group
What happened last week in financial markets
Markets were volatile amid geopolitical concerns
Canada’s TSX started the week with a strong 1.1% gain on Monday to reach its first record high of 2026. The financials and materials sectors led the day, increasing by 1.6% and 3.3%, respectively. Materials stocks were supported by a 2.7% jump in gold prices, as investors sought out safe haven assets following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The Canadian benchmark extended its rally on Tuesday, adding 0.6% to hit another record high, while metal mining shares continued to climb. Momentum shifted on Wednesday, with the TSX slipping 0.8%, but bounced back with a 0.8% gain on Thursday, erasing that loss. The energy sector led Thursday’s performance as the price of oil climbed 3.2%. Friday saw the TSX notch another record high as commodity prices and resilient unemployment data reassured investors
The major U.S. stock indexes also opened the week higher on Monday, as markets assessed the U.S. military action. The Dow led gains, climbing 1.2% and briefly topping 49,000 for the first time, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 0.6%. Technology stocks were in focus on Tuesday, with renewed AI-demand helping extend gains and pushing all three indexes to fresh record highs. The Dow closed 1% higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose another 0.6%. Sentiment shifted on Wednesday, as declines for JPMorgan Chase, Blackstone and other major financial organizations weighed on the broader market. The Dow gave back 0.94% and the S&P 500 shed 0.34%, while the Nasdaq eked out a modest 0.16% gain. Thursday’s session also closed with mixed results as big tech and geopolitical headwinds continued to rattle markets. Wall Street ended Friday with across-the-board gains across multiple sectors including materials and industrials. For the first week of 2026, the S$&P 500 rose 1.6%, the Nasdaq climbed 1.9% and the Dow jumped 2.3%.
Control of Venezuelan oil took centre stage
Oil prices fluctuated throughout the first half of the week. Crude futures rose on Monday, with benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gaining 1.66%, as traders considered supply disruptions and comments from U.S. President Trump that signalled his intention to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry. Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, though production last year averaged just one million barrels per day (about 1% of global output). On Tuesday, expectations of increased supply pushed prices down, with WTI dropping 2% to US$57. Prices declined further on Wednesday after the White House said the U.S. had reached a deal to import up to US$2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, causing WTI to drop another 2%, but surged 3.2% higher on Thursday, extending the volatility.
The situation weighed heavily on Canada’s energy sector. Shares of major producers Suncor Energy, Imperial Oil, Cenovus Energy and Canadian Natural Resources all fell on Monday. The potential of increased supply to the U.S. has investors concerned that Canada’s oil exports to its largest market may be reduced. Speaking to reporters in Paris, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney downplayed concerns for Canada’s energy sector: “It’s been our view, and we’re working toward this, that Canadian oil will be competitive because it is low risk,” Carney said. “We welcome the prospects of greater prosperity in Venezuela. But we also see the competitiveness of Canadian oil.” Carney also emphasized the importance of pipeline expansion and exports to Asian markets.
In other news:
Auditing and consulting firm Deloitte Canada released its 2026 economic forecast on Wednesday, downgrading its outlook for Canadian growth. Deloitte now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to rise by 1.5% in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 1.7% issued in September 2025. The firm said growth is expected to gain momentum in the third and fourth quarters, as businesses adapt to tariff and trade policies, and projects approved by the Major Projects Office begin to have an impact.
On Thursday, Statistics Canada reported that the country returned to a trade deficit in October, as imports rose faster than exports. Canada imported $66.2-billion worth of goods in October, up 3.4% from September, while exports rose 2.1% to $65.6 billion. The faster pace of import growth shifted the trade balance to a $563 million deficit from a revised $243 million surplus in September. Analysts had anticipated a $1.5-billion deficit.
Many factors influence the market.
The best defence against market uncertainty is having – and sticking to – an investment strategy that’s geared toward your individual goals and objectives. If you have questions or decide it’s time to review your plan, our financial representatives are here to help.
U.S. inflation (January 13):
The annual inflation rate was 2.7% in November 2025, the lowest since July 2025, and below the 3.1% that was forecast. The December report will be closely watched, as market participants search for insights and reliable data reporting returns in the U.S.
More important dates
- January 19: U.S. stock markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
- January 28: Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate announcements
- February 16: TSX closed for Family Day
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