| Index | Close | Week | Year to date |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | 33,144.98 | 0.32% | 4.52% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 49,098.71 | -0.53% | 2.15% |
| S&P 500 Index | 6,915.61 | -0.35% | 1.02% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 23,501.24 | -0.06% | 1.12% |
| 10-year Canadian Bond Yield | 3.41% | 0.04% | -0.01% |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield | 4.24% | 0.00% | 0.06% |
| WTI Crude Oil (U.S.$ per barrel) | 61.07 | 2.92% | 6.36% |
| Canadian Dollar | US$0.73 | 1.31% | -0.19% |
Prime Rate 4.45 % |
|||
Weekly performance ended January 23, 2026.
Sources: Morningstar Direct, Bank of Canada, U.S. Department of the Treasury and CME Group
Markets reacted to Greenland developments
Trading volume was light on Monday with the major U.S. stock markets closed for the Martin Luther King, Jr. Day federal holiday. Canada’s benchmark TSX eked out a record close, though, gaining 0.2% on the strength of metal mining shares and the materials sector, as gold prices surged.
Demand for the safe-haven asset grew again on Tuesday, with gold surpassing US$4,700 an ounce. The rush on safer investments was a reaction to U.S. President Trump’s threat of additional tariffs against eight European countries - Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland – as tension over control of Greenland escalated. Markets also declined with the TSX down 1%, the Dow falling 1.8%, the S&P 500 losing 2.1% (its biggest loss since October) and the Nasdaq dropping 2.4%. Tech stocks suffered the hardest hit on Tuesday, led by a 3.5% loss for Apple and a 4.4% slip for Nvidia.
Markets bounced back on Wednesday after offstage comments from Trump at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The U.S. president said that he and Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, had “formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.” It was enough to calm investors, and help the S&P 500 regain 1.16%, the Nasdaq claw back 1.18% and the Dow recoup 1.21%. Canada’s TSX added 0.3%.
Investors remained in a buying mood on Thursday, as geopolitical tensions continued to soften. Fresh U.S. economic data added to the positivity, showing consumer spending rose a healthy 0.5% in November. The Dow gained 0.63%, the S&P 500 increased 0.55% and the Nasdaq jumped 0.91%. The TSX ended 0.5% higher, boosted by the price of gold, which crossed US$4,900. On Friday, the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1%, the Nasdaq gained 0.3%, while the Dow fell 0.6%. All three U.S. benchmarks ended the week with a modest loss. The TSX added 0.4% and closed the week with another record high.
World leaders took the stage in Davos
First held in 1971, the annual World Economic Forum in the ski-resort town of Davos, Switzerland, has evolved from a business-executive think tank into one of the most influential engagements on the global economic calendar. This year, over 850 of the world’s top CEOs and CFOs attended, along with 400 political leaders, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump – both of whom sparked media attention.
“Let me be direct,” Carney said early in his speech. “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” With a thinly veiled reference to the U.S., Carney called out the great powers using economic integration as weapons and tariffs as leverage. “As a result, many countries are drawing the same conclusions,” the Prime Minister said. “They must develop greater strategic autonomy: in energy, food, critical minerals, in finance and supply chains.” Carney highlighted new partnerships with China and Qatar, and Canada’s goal to fast-track a trillion dollars of investment, establish new trade corridors and double its defence spending by the end of the decade. “The old order is not coming back," Carney said. “Middle powers must act together, because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu.”
Trump responded in his keynote address, calling out Canada’s Prime Minister by name: “Canada gets a lot of freebies from us, by the way. They should be grateful, but they’re not. I watched your Prime Minister yesterday. He wasn’t so grateful. Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.”
The IMF raised its global forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global gross domestic product (GDP) forecast upward on Monday. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the organization, which includes 191 member countries, projected GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026, a 0.2% increase from its last estimate in October. If met, the 2026 projection would equal the 3.3% GDP growth achieved in 2025. “We find that global growth remains quite resilient,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters. “The global economy is shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025 and is coming out ahead of what we were expecting before it all started.” The IMF’s Canadian outlook remained steady at 1.6% GDP growth in 2026, rising to 1.9% in 2027.
Canadian CPI increased in December
The annual inflation rate in Canada rose 2.4% in December, up from 2.2% in November and above analyst expectations (also 2.2%). Much of the year-over-year increase reflects last year’s temporary GST/HST tax holiday. In December 2024, various items (including restaurant food, alcoholic beverages, toys, children’s clothes and some grocery store items), were exempt from GST/HST. Last month, increasing restaurant prices – up 8.5% versus 3.3% in November – was the largest contributor to the headline inflation increase. Alcohol served at licensed establishments and alcohol purchased in stores also factored into the December increase, rising 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Gasoline prices helped offset the inflation spike, falling 13.8% in December, after sliding 7.8% in November. In the U.S., inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, up from 2.7% in October, according to Commerce Department data released on Thursday.
Be informed, but not influenced, by the news
Media and news reports can be informative, but they shouldn’t drive your investment decisions. Always put market performance into perspective, with your goals as the focus. Partnering with us is a great way to keep your investment plan moving forward. Our experienced portfolio managers can guide your investments through market uncertainty and help you stay on track toward your financial goals. If you have questions or decide it’s time to review your plan, our financial representatives are here to help.
Bank of Canada and U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate announcements (January 28)
When the first interest-rate decisions of 2026 are made by both central banks, it is widely expected that policy-makers will hold policy rates steady.
More important dates
- February 16: Canadian and U.S. stock markets closed
- March 2: Deadline for contributing to an RRSP for the 2025 tax year
- April 30: 2025 personal income tax filing deadline
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